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In 2015, nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global warming to 1.5°C as part of an international treaty known as the Paris Agreement.
More than a decade later, the Earth’s temperature has already crossed this benchmark – 2024 was the first year to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
In 2025, temperatures averaged 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels.
But experts say the world hasn’t broken the limit just yet.
THE LIMIT DOES … NOT EXIST?
The 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement refers to a long-term period rather than individual annual temperature recordings.
According to the Climate Council, by the end of 2023, the world had warmed by an average of approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels.
While this might provide some reassurance, a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has found the world is on track to ‘overshoot’ the 1.5°C threshold in the next few years.
It also expects global temperatures to peak at 1.8°C, even in the most optimistic scenario.
The UNEP states the impact of this temperature rise could cause severe damage to human health, food security, nature and economies.
The World Meteorological Organization has also highlighted heat stress as a growing problem, with more than one-third of the global workforce facing workplace heat stress each year.
TIME TO LOCK IN
Importantly, not all hope is lost.
The UNEP report suggests taking a new approach to the rise in temperature – the ‘overshoot, peak and decline’ pathway.
This approach focuses on limiting how far temperatures rise above 1.5°C, how long they stay there and, eventually, bringing them back down.
The UNEP suggests a series of solutions to minimise the temperature rise, including immediate and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions such as methane.
Longer-term tactics like removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and restoring forests could also help bring temperatures back below 1.5°C.
The overarching message from the UNEP is that every fraction of a degree matters.
While the world might be heading beyond 1.5°C, there is still opportunity to limit the impact.
